Is Bitcoin in a Bull Market ?

The chart above was originally part of premium content published on May 2, 2023, and has been updated on June 22.  All of the comments below are based on this price chart.

The May 2nd article identified the key movement of 2023. In summary they as follows:

1) A Strong Start: The end of 2022 saw Bitcoin within a trading range $15,500 to $18,350. This sets up Bitcoin to have a strong start in 2023 as its price increases to $24,281

2) 1st Trading Range: The volume decreases and the price ranges from $19,800 to $25,000.

3) The 2nd Price Surge: The price Increases from $19,800 to $31,000.

4) 2nd Trading Range: The volume decreases again, causing the price to hit lows around  $25,000 due to SEC lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase.  The price eventually recovers back to the resistance level of $30,800.

Bitcoin Analysis - June 22, 2023

As of June 22, 2023, Bitcoin has experienced higher prices for 7 out of the past 8 days. It has reached the upper level of a trading range that was previously observed on April 14th. This marks the 3rd strongest price cycle this year. However, there are two reasons for concern: the significant resistance level of $30,800, which needs to be broken for a new bull cycle to be confirmed, and the trading volume, which is lower compared to the previous two price surges. Bull markets require strong buying volume, which has not yet been established.

In conclusion, the analysis of Bitcoin's price movements based on the provided chart reveals several key observations. The year 2023 began with a strong start as Bitcoin's price surged from a trading range to reach $24,281. Subsequent price movements included a trading range with decreasing volume, followed by a significant price surge to $31,000. However, due to SEC lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, the price experienced a temporary setback but managed to recover to the resistance level of the trading range at $30,800. As of June 22, 2023, Bitcoin has shown positive momentum, with prices higher for the majority of recent days, approaching the upper level of a previous trading range. However, two concerns remain: the need to break above the resistance level of $30,800 to confirm a new bull cycle and the lower trading volume compared to previous surges. Vigilance is advised, as establishing strong buying volume is crucial for the development of a sustained bull market in Bitcoin.

To confirm a bull market Bitcoin needs to be trading above $31,000 with improved volume.  Otherwise is may be back to the trading range with a resistance level of $30,800 established in the middle of March and a support level of $25.000 based on the trading action after the lawsuits by the SEC against Binance and Coinbase.

None of this is meant to be financial advice and I do not have any financial expertise. Although I worked at the New York Stock Exchange for over 23 years, it was as a developer supporting computer systems, not as a stock trader.

Full discloser: I do own Bitcoin and other Altcoins.

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