Bitcoin Just Triggered a Death Cross: History Says This Is Bullish

On October 13, when Bitcoin was still at $116,000, we reported “Tariffs Reset the Playbook: Why Crypto’s Downturn Could Deepen.”  

Now Bitcoin is below $90,000 and the Bitcoin Death Cross has just occurred, what does this mean?  I have written about previous Bitcoin Death Cross (BDC) multiple times, and the narrative continues to be the similar each time this technical signal occurs. Let’s start with what a Death Cross is:

A Death Cross occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. The 50-day average reflects short-to-medium-term momentum, while the 200-day average tracks long-term trend direction. When the faster trend line crosses under the slower one, it indicates that recent price action has weakened enough to drag the shorter average downward — a sign that sellers have been in control for an extended period.

Why many stock indicators do not work for cryptocurrency

Historically, the Death Cross has been a reliable warning signal in traditional stock markets, where it often precedes prolonged downturns or significant corrections. Equities tend to trend more smoothly, and their lower volatility makes long-term moving-average crossovers more meaningful.

Most of the time, the S&P 500 moves between -1% and 1% during a trading day. This is true for the S&P as a whole and for each component stock in its index. Based on the vast differences in volatility, using technical analysis tools that are fine-tuned to predict movements in a slower-moving stock market should not be blindly applied to cryptocurrency markets. The frequency and size of price changes do matter.

Bitcoin, however, behaves very differently. Its inherently higher volatility, shorter and faster price cycles, and sudden reversals mean that a moving-average crossover frequently appears late—often after much of the downside has already occurred. This same pattern has held true across multiple Bitcoin Death Crosses.

Rather than predicting major selloffs, the lagging Bitcoin Death Cross signal has more often marked periods of seller exhaustion and upcoming bottoms. This has been the case for the past three Bitcoin Death Crosses, including the most recent one on April 6, when Bitcoin was trading around $78,200 and reached a short-term low the very next day at $76,285.

The 2025 Bitcoin Death Cross chart

As shown on the chart above, the April Death Cross formed almost simultaneously with Bitcoin’s short-term bottom. This has also been the pattern with the three prior Bitcoin Death Crosses, and the most recent November Death Cross followed weeks of selling that had already pushed prices sharply lower. The chart also highlights how Bitcoin rebounded in April, reinforcing the idea that the BDC is a lagging confirmation of weakness.

Moving Forward

Despite the negative sentiment that typically surrounds a Death Cross, Bitcoin often reacts differently than traditional financial assets. Because of its fast-moving price cycles, Bitcoin’s Death Cross events frequently occur near the end of a downtrend rather than at the beginning. This makes them lagging indicators rather than reliable predictors of future losses.

With the most recent Death Cross now in place, the market will be watching closely to see whether Bitcoin follows its historical pattern of forming a bottom shortly afterward. While no indicator is perfect, prior cycles suggest that once the initial panic subsides, Bitcoin often stabilizes and begins building the foundation for its next upward trend.

Sponsored Offer

Our current sponsor BYDFi is offering several new promotions for new customers. For example, new users who make a $100 deposit can receive a 30 USDT bonus directly from BYDFi.

https://partner.bydfi.com/register?vipCode=WXc4rz

Disclaimer

Quantify Crypto is an informational website that provides market data, technical analytics and links to news and commentary sources. Information published on Quantify Crypto platform should not be taken as investment advice in any way.

Quantify Crypto is not an investment adviser and you agree to not cite the Quantify Crypto platform or content as the reason or cause for making any trading decisions. Quantify Crypto is not accountable, directly, or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred, alleged or otherwise, in connection to the use or reliance of any content you read on the site.

You agree not to consider the information on Quantify Crypto platform as a solicitation to invest in any cryptocurrencies, initial coin offerings, or other financial instruments.

Past performance of any signals, strategies, or market data presented on the Quantify Crypto platform is not indicative of future results and does not guarantee future returns.