Bitcoin’s First Break Below a Halving Level: A Historic Cycle Shift

The 4^th Bitcoin Halving occurred on April 19^th, 2024. Bitcoin halving events are pre-programmed adjustments that occur approximately every four years. During a halving event, the block reward given to Bitcoin miners is reduced by half. This mechanism is designed to control the issuance of new Bitcoins and ensure a limited supply over time.

Historically, Bitcoin halvings have had a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. The reduction in block rewards affects the supply dynamics of Bitcoin. With fewer new Bitcoins entering circulation, the rate of inflation decreases, which can create upward pressure on the price due to the increased scarcity.

As depicted in the chart above, historical price reactions to previous Bitcoin halvings show that significant price surges have typically occurred within four to twelve months following the halving event. For the fourth Bitcoin halving, the peak occurred in October 2025, approximately 18 months after the event.

Notably, following the recent decline in Bitcoin’s price, the $60,000 level was below the $63,510 price at which the fourth Bitcoin halving occurred. Bitcoin falling below a pre-halving price level is something that  has never occurred in its trading history. Although it did not remain below $63,510 for long, that level appears to represent a significant area of support.

Looking ahead, this brief move below the 4^th Bitcoin halving price will prove to be a historically significant event. Bitcoin has never sustained trading below a previous halving level in past cycles, making this deviation noteworthy. While the breakdown was short-lived, future analysis may view this moment as a key inflection point—potentially marking the structural low of the 2026 cycle. If historical patterns continue to hold, reclaiming and holding above the halving price could serve as an important technical confirmation that the broader bottoming process has completed.

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