Bitcoin’s Hidden Seasonal Edge: What August–December Data Reveals
John Barry | Wed Oct 08 2025
Bitcoin has a history of making its biggest moves late in the year. From the explosive rally of 2020 to the election-fueled surge of 2024, the August–December period has repeatedly set the stage for major bull runs — and, at times, sharp reversals.
Our latest research analyzed five years of seasonal Bitcoin performance and uncovered clear, recurring patterns that every serious investor should know.
This article is a digest version of our full report Bitcoin Seasonal Patterns available to premium subscribers.
August typically sets the tone — historically a weak month — followed by stabilization in September and powerful breakouts in Q4. This year is no different: Bitcoin fell 6.3% in August, then confirmed the pattern in September with a steady rebound.
Not every year fits the mold perfectly. 2022 was the exception, when the FTX collapse derailed the seasonal setup. But in most years, these recurring dynamics have preceded major moves.
Macro Tailwinds Fueling 2025
The story of U.S. crypto in 2025 is the regulatory pivot. The SEC’s previous “regulation by enforcement” era — characterized by unpredictable lawsuits — has given way to clearer, supportive rules under the Trump administration.
Two key bills, The Genius Act and The Clarity Act, advanced through Congress during July’s “Crypto Week,” while new FASB accounting standards and established spot ETFs are reinforcing institutional adoption.
Combined with geopolitical stability and steady ETF inflows, the current macro backdrop mirrors the early stages of previous late-year rallies.
Why This Matters
Understanding seasonal patterns doesn’t guarantee future performance — but it provides critical context for positioning. Historically, these months have produced some of Bitcoin’s largest gains and clearest directional trends.
Premium members can access the full 5-year data breakdown, month-by-month price tables, and historical analysis in our Quantify Crypto Research Reports
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