Bullish Bitcoin Death Cross followup
John Barry | Mon Jun 14 2021
This is a supplement to the prior June 9th article https://quantifycrypto.com/blog/bitcoin-death-cross-of-2021---why-its-bullish with key highlights from the past 5 days
- A significant increase in short interest positions for Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin Death Cross estimate date is now between Jun 17 to 21.
- Bitcoin starting to show signs of a short squeeze.
Current Bitcoin Chart
When will the 2021 Death Cross occur for Bitcoin?
The estimated day for the 2021 Bitcoin death cross is now June 19th. The 200-day moving average is now $42,490 (up from $41,590 on June 9th). The 50-day moving average is now $44,622 (down from $45,527) Every day the two moving averages are getting closer.
Significant increase in Bitcoin Short Positions
The chart above shows, there was a large percentage increase in short interest positions for Bitcoin, since the June 9th article was published. This was pointed out by Jae when I was a guest on Bitcoin Daily analyzing the Bitcoin Death Cross. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTeCgbYPzK0
The short interest level is now at this highest level since Mar 17th 2020. This indicates the potential for a short squeeze is increasing. The level of short interest on Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange, for example, has increased 2,000% this month and is still increasing (this is occurring on multiple crypto exchanges)
The 2019 Bitcoin Death Cross – Inaccurate reporting
Many pundits are using the 2019 Bitcoin Death Cross as proof that its an accurate indicator. If you had entered a short position prior to this event (as stock traders did) you got crushed.
The price chart of the 2019 Death Cross day (Oct 25) shows an opening price of $7,443 and a price peak to over $10,500 (40% increase). However, FUD reporting is using the Bitcoin peak price $10,500 price for their analysis instead of the entry price on that day of $7,443!
In fairness, Bitcoin does go down in price on Nov 26th to $6,545, a decrease of 12%; It is not the 60% reduction being reported by some analysists. The Oct 25th short squeeze occurs because of the short position’s traders create applying the Bitcoin Death Cross stock price pattern analytics.
Don’t be deceived by the FUD predicting Bitcoin’s Doom
There continues to be a lot of dire predictions for Bitcoin price, here are some examples.
The current analytics for Bitcoin are positive. The June 14th Quantify Crypto trend score is bullish 78%, short term RSI analytics are neutral while longer term RSI is bullish, 3 out of the 5 MACD candlestick periods we track are bullish. Bitcoin is trading above its baseline. Click here to get the latest chart and analytics https://quantifycrypto.com/coins/BTC
Current Bitcoin Analysis
I expect a high amount of volatility for the next week, with large price swings leading to a significant short squeeze that will lead to a short-term Bitcoin price increase. Recent price movements have been strong for the long positions. Recent price movements give Bitcoin support levels at $39,000 and $35,000 and resistance at $41,000. I feel this may be the trading range for the next few days. Its hard to know when the Crypto Whales will start buying, I feel they may wait while additional FUD is reported about the Bitcoin Death Cross.
Often small price movements are a sign of future larger price changes in Bitcoin. Remember to take profits and don’t trade on margin.
The platform Quantify Crypto provides live cryptocurrency prices, technical analysis, news, heatmaps and more. Our flagship product is the trend algorithm, designed to be on the correct side of significant cryptocurrency price moves.
None of this is meant to be financial advice and I do not have any financial expertise. Although I worked at the New York Stock Exchange for over 23 years, it was as a developer supporting computer systems, not as a stock trader.
Full discloser: I do own Bitcoin and some altcoins.