The Crypto Bear Market of 2025 is Over
John Barry | Fri May 02 2025
After four consecutive months of steep losses, April brought a decisive shift in momentum for the crypto markets. With Bitcoin up 14.5% and the QC500 index also rising sharply, there's strong evidence that the 2025 crypto bear market has ended.
A Technical Turning Point
Our April 11 Premium Analysis was highly accurate in identifying the bottom. At the time, we noted Bitcoin was forming a double bottom pattern near $75,000, with key lows on April 7 and 9. The strong rebound on April 9 and price stability on April 10 pointed to building bullish momentum. Bitcoin's subsequent rally toward $96,000 confirmed this technical signal.
The broader crypto market, closely following Bitcoin's lead, also stabilized. The QC500 index was down just 0.25% that week despite high volatility and fear. This resilience was a key indicator that the worst of the downturn was behind us.
April: A Month of Recovery
April's +14.00% average gain broke a four-month losing streak: March: -17.47%, February: -28.27%, January: -5.95%, December: -17.52%. Values are the QC100 Index.
The majority of April’s gains occurred in the final two weeks, with Bitcoin climbing 13.7% from mid-month onward. This strong finish added further confirmation that the downtrend has reversed.
Key Drivers Behind the Rebound
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Regulatory Tailwinds
Positive developments in March set the stage for recovery in April, improving investor confidence across the board. -
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Rebound
After three straight months of outflows, April 16 marked a critical reversal, with renewed institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs—a key support pillar for the rally. -
Technical Rebound from Oversold Levels
Many cryptocurrencies entered April in deeply oversold conditions, prompting a natural bounce as buying pressure returned. -
Tariff Volatility May Have Peaked
Market fears tied to U.S. tariffs have eased as negotiations and implementation pauses signaled the worst may be over. Sentiment improved notably in the second half of April.
Accurate Premium Analysis:
On April 11th, Gold subscribers got the accurate update that "the relatively stable weekly numbers suggest that prices may be approaching a bottom. ... bullish technical signals suggesting Bitcoin could soon retest $84,000"
Conclusion
All signs now point to a clear end to the 2025 crypto bear market. A well-formed technical bottom, improving ETF flows, and fading macro fears have realigned the trend. While volatility will persist, the path forward appears far more constructive heading into May.
Our Premium "Crypto Market Pulse - May 1" details 3 additional themes that occurred in April that will impact May price movements.
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