What July Has Taught Us So Far About Bitcoin Price Movement

John Barry | Mon Jul 14 2025

As we pass the midpoint of July 2025, the Bitcoin market has delivered key insights into its current behavior and the forces shaping its trend. From regulatory optimism in the U.S. to geopolitical stability abroad, Bitcoin has steadily climbed above the $120,000 mark—surpassing the once-formidable resistance level of $112,000.

Let’s examine what July has taught us so far about Bitcoin price movement and what it may signal for the road ahead.


Breaking Out of the Trading Range

Since May 8th, Bitcoin traded within a narrow range of $100,000 to $112,000, struggling to break free. However, that changed on July 11, when a surge of buying lifted Bitcoin to $117,500, followed by a new monthly high of $123,000 on July 14, before settling near $120,000. Recently Bitcoin has been slowing going higher, with gains in 16 of the past 22 days.

The breakout above $112,000—accompanied by exceptionally high trading volume—marks a significant shift in market sentiment. Historically, resistance levels that hold for several weeks often flip into support, which may provide a price floor in the near term. The momentum behind the current rally remains bullish, with steady higher closes and limited retracements, a clear sign of institutional and retail interest aligning.


Regulation: A Turning Point for Crypto

The regulatory environment in the United States has become a powerful tailwind. Early in the month, expectations grew around "Crypto Week" in Congress, where lawmakers were scheduled to discuss three landmark bills:

  • The Genius Act

  • The Clarity Act

  • The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act

This legislative momentum reflects a dramatic shift from past adversarial stances to a more supportive regulatory posture. Investors and developers alike see this as a long-term bullish development that reduces uncertainty and paves the way for broader adoption.


Tariff Negotiations: Trade War Avoided… For Now

One of the most persistent risks to market sentiment in July has been the looming threat of a global trade war, fueled by a series of U.S. tariff letters sent to over a dozen countries. A key deadline—July 9—brought uncertainty, but markets found relief when the Trump administration extended the tariff pause by three weeks to August 1.

The pause created optimism that agreements with major trading partners such as the EU, China, Japan, and India could be reached, allowing Bitcoin and other risk assets to rally. Positive signals from these negotiations helped support Bitcoin’s climb from the $108,000–$110,000 range earlier in the month.


Geopolitical Calm: Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holding

Amid global tension, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran has continued to hold, removing a major source of geopolitical risk. The lack of escalation has allowed global markets—including crypto—to maintain upward trajectories without fear-based volatility.

While this may seem peripheral to Bitcoin, geopolitical stability often supports risk-on asset behavior, especially when combined with easing regulatory pressure and macroeconomic optimism.


Sector-Wide Strength: Meme Coins and DeFi Lead

Bitcoin's bullish momentum hasn’t been an isolated phenomenon. The QC500 index, which tracks 500 cryptocurrencies, is up sharply in July—rising over 9% on July 11 alone. Sector trends reveal:

  • Meme coins surged 12%, often acting as high-beta indicators in bull markets.

  • DeFi, Platform, and Gaming sectors all rose around 10%.

The broad market strength supports the thesis that this rally is not just speculative—it’s underpinned by improved sentiment across crypto sectors.

 


Final Thought

July has taught us that macro factors matter—especially for Bitcoin. With a combination of:

  • constructive U.S. legislation,

  • avoided trade war escalation, and

  • sustained geopolitical calm,

Bitcoin has not only rallied, it’s done so on growing volume and sector-wide confirmation.

Stay tuned to Quantify Crypto for the latest research reports, trends and metrics tracking Bitcoin's next move.

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